Análisis comparativo del impacto de factores económicos en la inversión extranjera directa en Ecuador (2000 - 2022)

Abstract

The study analyzes the relationship between various economic factors such as the Outgoing Foreign Exchange Tax (ISD), Value Added Tax (IVA), Income Tax (IR), as well as other economic indicators, such as political stability, which is measured with the index of political stability and absence of violence according to the World Bank, and country risk, with Foreign Direct Investment (ISD) in Ecuador during the period 2000-2022. It was found that the ISD does not have a significant impact on ISD, suggesting that it is not a determining factor in short-term foreign investment decisions. In contrast, Value Added Tax (IVA) showed an initial negative effect on ISD, indicating that increases in this tax may discourage investment in the short term. However, in the medium term, a positive effect was observed in later lags, suggesting that the economy could adjust to changes in the IVA. In addition, the first lag of the TCPIB (TCPIB) had a positive effect on foreign direct investment, suggesting that economic growth encourages ISD. On the other hand, the Benchmark Lending Rate (TI) showed a complex relationship, with positive lagged effects on ISD, implying that changes in interest rates may influence investment decisions over time. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Taxes, ISD