Incidencia de la morosidad en la salud financiera de una institución de educación superior en Guayaquil

Abstract

CONDITION FOR PUBLICATION OF PROJECT. study examines the impact of delinquency on the financial health of a higher education institution in Guayaquil, focusing on postgraduate programs during the 2020–2024 period. The main objective was to measure the delinquency ratio and its effect on liquidity, as well as to propose an action plan to optimize collection management. The research followed a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach, applying horizontal and vertical analysis, financial ratios, and a binary logistic regression model to identify the variables influencing delinquency. The findings reveal that 72.58% of the portfolio corresponds to overdue accounts, which significantly undermines institutional liquidity. Delinquency is concentrated primarily in the Master’s in Public Policy and Management and the Master’s in Finance programs, while the dropout rate, although relatively low (4.46%), also negatively affects projected revenues. Moreover, age was found to be a significant variable in determining the likelihood of delinquency. Finally, an action plan is proposed, focusing on the prevention and recovery of receivables. This plan includes early controls, risk segmentation, periodic reporting, and progressive collection procedures. The implementation of these measures will help reduce delinquency and strengthen liquidity indicators, thereby contributing to the institution’s financial sustainability.